I think it is odd that Google put $20 million behind the Google Lunar X Prize, but it does not appear to have subsidized a prediction market about the outcome, even though Google is a notable user of prediction markets. The intrade contract is already reasonably liquid (10% spread), but it would be interesting to see a more liquid market. A more liquid market would give people who think about the future of space exploration an easy way to see how hard or easy it is to go back to the moon (right now the probability is 20%-30%).

Advertisements