I have been thinking more about charity, and I was wrong earlier, my charity of choice will not be prediction market charities. Being a utilitarian means I have to choose the one that generates the biggest benefit. This is an extremely difficult calculation, and google searching for “utilitarian charity” was useless.
Via Marginal Revolution, I found GiveWell which reviews different charities in terms of effectiveness, and if you donate to their own charity, they donate that money to whatever charity they find the best. GiveWell appears to be extremely transparent, and pretty utilitarian (their whole goal is to maximize the good that charity money does by finding the best charitiy).
From their About Us:
Unlike existing evaluators, which focus solely on financials, assessing administrative or fundraising costs, we focus on how well programs actually work – i.e., their effects on the people they serve.
GiveWell is essentially an investment bank for charities (it was started by hedge fund folks). It researches charities using as much data as possible in order to estimate how much benefit they create, and then put all their money there (diversification is bad in charity, unlike in investing, because all actions are marginal, as here).explains
I will most likely be putting my charity money here.