The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is calling for public comments on possible regulation of “Event Contracts.” As I understand it, this is good news for prediction markets; there is a lot of uncertainty about the regulatory status of prediction markets, and this seems like it would clear that up. A clear regulatory framework would pave the way for real-money prediction markets. At least, as long as event contracts are not regulated out of existence. It is my impression that this is a very good thing, so I am very excited.
I will be submitting comments via e-mail (email@example.com), and I encourage others to do the same.
The gist of my comments is going to be that I see the potential for prediction markets to help regular people, who don’t have access to a lot of data and analysis, make decisions. For example, prediction markets about the future of renewable resource technologies could help engineering students determine whether they should invest resources in learning about those technologies. Prediction markets about the economic future of specific geographic areas could help young workers decide where to move to get good jobs. Therefore, I would like to see the prediction markets relatively unlimited.