I started reading Overcoming Bias in the last few months, and Eliezer Yudkowsky has more or less convinced me that uncertainty is a property of your mind, not reality. Because of this, I really liked this passage in The Black Swan (p. 198 )
Often, in conferences when they hear me talk about uncertainty and randomness, philosophers, and sometimes mathematicians, bug me about the least relevant point, namely whether the randomness I address is “true randomness” or “deterministic chaos” that masquerades as randomness. A true random system is in fact random and does not have predictable properties. A chaotic system has entirely predictable properties, but they are hard to know.
[…]There is no functional difference in practice between the two since we will never get to make the distinction– the difference is mathematical, not practical. If I see a pregnant woman, the sex of her child is a purely random matter to me (a 50 percent chance for either sex)– but not to her doctor, who might have done an ultrasound. In practice, randomness is fundamentally incomplete information.
[…]Randomness, in the end, is just unknowledge.